Economic data · Reading kit
Economic release reading kit
Keep the new figure, the consensus forecast and revisions separate. This free worksheet gives you a consistent record of what was published, when it was published and what remains uncertain.
No account or subscription required. For the definitions, read how to read an economic calendar.
One release, two different comparisons
Illustrative figures only. These are invented growth figures for a calculation example, not an official release or an app result.
- Forecast
- 0.2%
- Actual
- 0.9%
- Previous, before revision
- 0.3%
- Previous, after revision
- 0.1%
Actual minus forecast: 0.9% − 0.2% = +0.7 percentage points.
Revision: 0.1% − 0.3% = −0.2 percentage points. This changes the prior period, not the current actual figure.
Dividing the 0.7-point surprise by the 0.2% forecast gives 350% relative to that forecast. That is not the reported growth rate or a probability. This relative calculation is undefined at a zero forecast and can be misleading near zero or with negative forecasts. Keep the original units visible.
Compare the same reporting period, units and adjustment basis. A monthly change, an annual change and an index level cannot be substituted for one another.
Release worksheet
Macro Research Technologies · macroresearchtechnologies.co.uk/learn/economic-release-reading-kit
- Release name and reporting period
- Official source and link
- Release date, time and time zone
- Local time and daylight-saving offset
- Units and seasonal-adjustment basis
- Previous figure before the release
- Consensus forecast, source and time checked
- Official actual figure
- Revised previous figure, if any
- Actual minus forecast, with units
- Revision to the previous figure, with units
- Context, conflicting evidence and unanswered questions
Check the release's official calendar and the relevant date's time-zone offset. A consensus forecast is separate from an official actual figure. Record both sources.
Before drawing a conclusion: check revisions, components, conflicting evidence and what was already expected. Do not interpret this worksheet as a trading recommendation.
Explore the research workflow
MacroMatrixFX focuses on FX fundamentals. MacroVolt covers cross-asset macro research. Their product pages show actual app screens and explain free and paid access. Neither app is required to use this worksheet.
Sources and checks
- European Union data visualisation guide: percentages versus percentage points
- ONS release calendar
- BLS Employment Situation release schedule
The example is illustrative. Sources are independent of Macro Research Technologies and have not reviewed or approved this resource. Corrections can be sent through our contact page.